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02/23/2012 - Philadelphia, PA (Sportsbook Betting Lines) - Bill Haas showed off his short game at the Tour Championship last fall, and he put on another display last weekend.
Haas doesn't get nearly the credit that others do, but if I needed someone to get up and down from off the green, I wouldn't hesitate to choose him to get it done for me.
On the second playoff hole last weekend at Riviera, Haas was the one that got up and down for birdie and the win on the drivable par-four 10th.
It wasn't PGA Championship winner Keegan Bradley, nor was it Phil Mickelson, owner of one of the best, if not the best, short games on the PGA Tour.
Granted, Bradley and Mickelson's failure to get up and down for birdie had more to do with where they hit their drives than it did with their poor chip shots.
It was Haas who showed off not just a deft touch, but also a sense of how to play the shot that gave him the best chance of a win.
He must have learned that from his father, Jay, or his great uncle, Bob Goalby. Jay has 24 combined wins on the PGA and Champions tours, and Goalby has 13 more titles, including the 1968 Masters.
They surely schooled Bill on the art of playing the proper shot. If he didn't show that at the Tour Championship, he did last weekend at Riviera.
His blast out of the water, with spin on it, at East Lake last year was the shot of the year in many people's eyes. Saving par from in the water, not only saved him a stroke or two, but that up and down propelled him to victory in both the Tour Championship and the FedExCup.
Last weekend, instead of going for the pin, Haas played his chip to the fat part of the green. By doing that, his worst-case scenario was a two-putt par, or an unlikely three-putt bogey.
Neither came to fruition as he buried the 40-footer for birdie and the win.
In his seventh season on the PGA Tour, Haas has all but locked up a spot on his first Ryder Cup team and has climbed to 12th in the world rankings.
Not only have solid genes helped Haas' rise toward the top, but his great touch around the greens also has fueled him.
THE BATTLE FOR NO. 1
Luke Donald's first-round loss Wednesday at the WGC-Accenture Match Play Championship opened the door for Rory McIlroy and Lee Westwood in the race for the top spot in the world rankings.
McIlroy and Westwood can take over the No. 1 spot from Donald if they win the Match Play. Donald's loss makes it seven straight years in which one of the four top seeds has lost in the first round of the Match Play.
Without a dominant lead like Yani Tseng's atop the Rolex World Rankings or Tiger Woods' cushion atop the rankings circa 2000-01, Donald's 1.45 average point lead could be wiped out because of Wednesday's loss.
Donald, McIlroy and Westwood are the only three who could be the top-ranked player in the world come Monday, but with several big events on the horizon, it's not out of the question the top spot could change hands multiple times in the next seven weeks.
Among the biggest events in the near future are another WGC event, the Cadillac Championship, the Arnold Palmer Invitational and The Masters.
Woods has won those three events a remarkable 16 times combined, but he is too far behind in the rankings to ascend back into the top spot in the world even if he wins all three.
If someone wins those three events, they would earn approximately 4.5 average ranking points. Taking into account the current rankings, that means anyone in the top in 11 in world could climb to the top of the rankings with a magical run of golf.
Though it isn't likely that someone will win all three, that doesn't mean Donald, McIlroy and Westwood won't exchange place several times in the coming weeks.
MINI-TIDBITS
- FedEx renewed its contract as sponsor of the FedExCup earlier this week. The deal runs through 2017 and is more proof that PGA Tour commissioner Tim Finchem continues to do wonders for the tour. With the economy far from fully recovered, Finchem has been able to maintain and, in some cases, add new sponsors despite the down economy. I'd say he's earning his $5 million salary.
- I think J.B. Holmes has already sewn up the Comeback Player of the Year award after four events, thanks in part to his share of eighth last week at Riviera. I don't care that he has missed two cuts and five of his 13 rounds this year have been over par. He's coming back from brain surgery last fall.
- Masters champion Charl Schwartzel has asked Augusta National officials if he can have a cookout for the champions dinner, with himself as the chef. That's a cool idea there, Charl, but I'd rather sit in the dinner room talking with all the legends at the dinner.
<< 14th-ranked Racers set sights on Tigers in Nashville
Nashville, TN (Sportsbook Betting Lines) - The 14th-ranked Murray State Racers will try
to avenge their only loss of the season as they head to the Gentry Center to
battle the Tennessee State Tigers in a premiere Ohio Valley Conference
matchup.
TSU a
<< Cardinals and Bearcats collide in Queen City affair
Cincinnati, OH (Sportsbook Betting Lines) - The tie for sixth-place in the Big East will
be broken tonight as the 17th-ranked Louisville Cardinals head to Fifth Third
Arena to battle the Cincinnati Bearcats.
This will be the 95th meeting in history be
<< Hawkeyes and Badgers meet in Big Ten battle
Iowa City, IA (Sportsbook Betting Lines) - The 16th-ranked Wisconsin Badgers will look
to ground the Iowa Hawkeyes as they visit Carver-Hawkeye Arena for Big Ten
Conference action.
This will be the second encounter of this season and 155th in history
<< Top-25 showdown on tap in Tallahassee
Tallahassee, FL (Sportsbook Betting Lines) - The first place picture in the Atlantic
Coast Conference will get a little clearer tonight as the fifth-ranked Duke
Blue Devils head to the Donald L. Tucker Center to square off with the 15th-
ranked Florida S
England names roster for Netherlands friendly >>
London, England (Sportsbook Betting Lines) - England interim manager Stuart Pearce named
a 25-man roster Thursday for an upcoming friendly against the Netherlands, and
Fraizer Campbell and Tom Cleverley were both handed their first call-ups.
Pearce al
Saha named to French squad for Germany friendly >>
Paris, France (Sportsbook Betting Lines) - France boss Laurent Blanc included Louis Saha
on the squad Thursday for a friendly against Germany, giving the Tottenham man
a chance to revive his international career.
The 33-year-old Saha made his internat
North Carolina Central to play only four at home >>
Durham, NC (Sportsbook Betting Lines) - North Carolina Central will kick off the 2012
football season at home, but play there only three more times in an 11-game
schedule.
The Eagles will host Division II Fayetteville in the season opener at O'Kelly-
Blue Bombers acquire punter from Eskimos >>
Winnipeg, MB (Sportsbook Betting Lines) - The Winnipeg Blue Bombers on Thursday acquired
punter Eric Wilbur from the Edmonton Eskimos in exchange for a 2013
conditional sixth-round draft pick.
Wilbur, who had signed with Edmonton earlier t
BILLS (+10) at Steelers SPORTSBOOK LINES
It's impossible to gauge how a team will react after something like the Steve Everett situation, and it probably doesn't matter. That being said, the Bills are going to lose several games this year where they keep things close but fall short in the end to superior teams. Ben Roethlisberger and company could have a field day against Buffalo's decimated defense, but I like the Bills to cover.
BENGALS (-7) at Browns SPORTSBOOK LINES
All you can ask out of your NFL team is that it has a plan. You may not always agree with it as a fan, but as long as it appears the organization is going in some sort of direction, you have to go with it. Which brings us to the Cleveland Browns. You flip a coin to determine whether Chuck Frye or Derek Anderson should start the preseason opener. You start Frye in Week 1, but pull him in the first half. And then you deal him to the Seahawks for a sixth-round pick? Hmm... the Bengals could get six turnovers again this week.
COLTS (-7) at Titans SPORTSBOOK LINES
Tennessee signed ex-Colts cornerback Nick Harper in the offseason so that should help slow down Peyton Manning. Just ask Jason David and the Saints. Oh wait... One of these weeks, I'm going to learn to not pick against Tennessee, which has won seven of its last eight games. But it's not happening against Indy.
TEXANS (+6.5) at Panthers SPORTSBOOK LINES
Houston's Mario Williams, the first pick in the '06 draft, has more touchdowns than Reggie Bush after one week. Somehow I don't see that lasting. Meanwhile, Carolina bottled up what was expected to be a pretty high-octane offense in St. Louis in Week 1. Could this be the Panthers' defense everyone expected last year? Maybe. This feels like a 20-16 Carolina win.
RAMS (-3) vs. 49ers SPORTSBOOKS LINES
Absolutely love this game. Everyone's favorite pick for this year's surprise team -- the 49ers -- laid an egg on Monday night (not that anyone was watching with the game ending in the middle of the night for those of us on the East Coast). St. Louis wasn't much better, delivering a lackluster effort against the Panthers that included two Steven Jackson fumbles and panic from his fantasy owners. Jackson rebounds this week, and the Rams get their first win.
PACKERS (+1.5) at Giants SPORTSBOOKS LINES
Do you really trust this guy to win an NFL game if Eli Manning can't go? I say no. I'd feel alot better about this Packers team if it had any semblance of a running game, but I still think Green Bay's defense is good enough to give it a 2-0 start.
JAGUARS (-10) vs. Falcons SPORTSBOOKS LINES
Does it scare me to pick Jacksonville to cover a double-digit spread after it scored just 10 points last week against the Titans? Absolutely. But can I bring myself to pick Atlanta under any circumstances? No. Check out this poll on ajc.com. It asks what Atlanta's most urgent deficiency is: offense, defense, specials teams or all of the above. "All of the above" has 57 percent of the votes. Ouch.
SAINTS (-3) at Buccaneers SPORTSBOOKS LINES
I'm picking way too many road teams this week. Oh well. New Orleans has had some time to reflect on its lackluster showing in the opener, and the Buccanneers just aren't a very good football team. Anyone else surprised Tampa Bay hasn't made a move to sign Byron Leftwich? I thought that's what they do.
VIKINGS (+3) at Lions SPORTS BETTING LINES
Run the ball and stop the run. Minnesota can do both, and that will keep them in a lot of games this season. Even though it was only one week, Adrian Peterson looks like he was a steal at No. 7 in last year's draft. Not only will he produce, but Peterson delivers excitement to what otherwise would be one of the league's most boring teams.
DOLPHINS (+3.5) vs. Cowboys SPORTS BETTING LINES
Lost in the Tony Romo lovefest is just how bad the Cowboys' defense was last week. I know they're banged up, but Dallas' 'D' allowed 438 yards to the Giants' offense, and backup running back Derrick Ward averaged 6.8 yards per carry. Meanwhile, Cam Cameron's decision to split carries between Ronnie Brown and Jesse Chatman sounds about as can't-miss as Larry David's plan to show up to Marty Funkhouser's party a night late. Still, gotta go with Miami to cover at home.
SEAHAWKS (-2.5) at Cardinals SPORTS BETTING LINES
I'm probably missing something, but this game seems too easy. Arizona blew Monday night's game against the 49ers in typical Cardinals fashion, and the Seahawks beat Tampa Bay by two touchdowns. Love Seattle in this one.
BRONCOS (-9.5) vs. Raiders SPORTS BETTING LINES
Special teams was a major story line in Week 1. Take a look at the Broncos. They had to rush on to the field to get a Jason Elam field goal as time expired against the Bills. Denver drove into Buffalo territory on eight of 10 drives but came away with just a pair of field goals and a touchdown. Look for more scoring from the Broncos this week against an Oakland defense that gave up 36 points to Detroit in Week 1.
BEARS (-12) vs. Chiefs SPORTS BETTING LINES
Everyone talks about Rex Grossman when dissecting the Bears' offense, but Chicago's quarterback got no help in last week's loss to the Chargers. Meanwhile, Kansas City confirmed what we all thought while watching Hard Knocks: The Chiefs are going to stink this year. It could be a rough first month for Larry Johnson fantasy owners. Kansas City's RB was limited to 43 yards on 10 carries in Week 1, and the Chiefs face the Bears, Vikings and Chargers the next three weeks, all formidable run defenses.
RAVENS (-10) vs. Jets SPORTS BETTING LINES
A big dose of Willis McGahee and a usual sound defensive effort will give the Ravens their first win. According to Football Outsiders, no team in the NFL rushed only three defenders on pass plays last year more than the Jets. And according to my special Jets correspondent Ben Stauber, New York did the same in Week 1. Whoever starts at quarterback for the Ravens should have all day to throw.
PATRIOTS (-3) vs. Chargers
Friends and I were discussing how Bill Belichick goes about paying his $500,000 fine for cheating. Does he just write one check to the NFL? Do you need some sort of clearance to make such a monstrous financial transaction? I guess I shouldn't complain about the security deposit I have to put down on my new apartment. Anyway, two of the league's best teams square off in what should be a good one Sunday night. The Patriots always respond well just when you think they're in trouble. And their offensive attack was the story in Week 1.
Note: Monday night game will be picked Monday. Lines used are from football betting.
There is little doubt that the NFL is where the sportsbooks see the most action and also make the most loot. The NFL possesses betting friendly attributes that are unlike any of the other major sports. First off, there are relatively few teams to keep track of in comparison to college football betting or college basketball. And second, these teams play only once a week which makes staying on top of the results much easier than it is in the daily leagues such as the NBA, NHL, and MLB.
These dynamics, along with the sheer excitement of watching and wagering on football, brings more square action to the table than any of the other sports. Almost every Tom, Dick and Harry in America is an NFL expert in their own mind and that is precisely what the oddsmakers prey upon.
Understanding who bets the games is just as important as understanding which teams are playing the games. The market at times will dictate price, which in the betting world means the oddsmakers cater to the public rather than reality.
Knowing the market inside and out is the basis of our NFL handicapping model. That is, our approach to NFL handicapping is of the contrarian or value seeking variety. We will at times place a higher premium on public sentiment than on the fundamentals. This strategy dictates playing dogs and/or lesser competent teams, or teams the public wants nothing to do with. Or better yet, fading the teams the oddsmakers want you to bet on.
Along these same lines, we carry a similar notion that the first week of the NFL season presents one of the ripest opportunities for the astute gambler. This conflicts with conventional wisdom and/or handicapping lore, as most would say it is better to watch a few games and assess each team before jumping in with both feet. That’s all fine and dandy, but there are some interesting trends to exploit in Week 1 and we’d be remiss to ignore them. Let us quickly explain.
Gone are the days of dynasties, where the same core players stay intact and dominate the league year after year. Free agency and player movements can completely transform teams from one season to the next. In today’s parity-driven NFL, poor teams typically don’t stay poor for all that long and excellent teams must constantly reinvent themselves to stay on top.
The temptation might be to assume prior year results are the best indicator of who is going to cover in Week 1. To Joe Public, playoff teams from the prior season, home teams, favorites, and so one, look even more enticing than usual since there is no current season performance to judge them against. But the question begs: are the oddsmakers setting a trap?
To find the answer, we culled five years worth of Week 1 NFL data. As always, all of our analysis is done from an ATS perspective. The purpose here is to share the most important angles we unearthed and try to explain the logic behind them. So strap on your helmet, throw on your shoulder pads, and follow our lead as we expose some rare holes in the oddsmakers’ line of defense.
Home vs. Away Teams
Over the past five seasons, NFL home teams in Week 1 are just 31-42-7 ATS (42 percent). This of course implies that roadies are a 58 percent winning proposition during this time. The public at large has a tendency to overvalue home teams and this is especially true in Week 1 when there is no current season data to make predictions from. Consequently, the oddsmakers almost surely shade the home teams, by and large making road teams the choice for the value player.
Conclusion: Look long and hard at road teams first when handicapping the opening week.
Price ranges
Favorites are just 31-42-7 ATS (42 percent) in the opening week over the past five NFL seasons (Coincidentally, home teams hold the same ATS record as noted above). This means that underdogs bark at a 58 percent clip. Mid-range favorites performed the worst among our specified price ranges. In particular, favorites priced between –3 1/2 and –6 1/2 are only 8-15 ATS (35 percent) during this time.
The same basic pattern holds true when looking at home favorites (road favorites gravitate towards a 50 percent mean). Home favorites indeed are just 21-32-3 ATS (40 percent) in the first week of NFL action since 1999. Again, mid-range favorites are similarly the poorest performers when we look at home teams. Consider that home teams priced between –3 1/2 and –6 1/2 have stumbled to a 6-13 ATS (32 percent) mark in Week 1 games the past five seasons.
Conclusion: Like home teams, favorites and particularly mid-range favorites are generally overvalued in Week 1.
Playoff teams
It might surprise you to learn that playoff teams from the prior year versus non-playoff teams from the prior year are a mere 16-23-3 (41 percent) ATS in NFL Week 1 games over the past five seasons. Home teams which made the playoffs versus teams which did not make the playoffs from the prior season drop to a meager 7-14-1 ATS (33 percent) during this time.
Why are playoff teams, and in particular those at home, such bad bets the past five openers? Just as the case with home teams and with favorites, oddsmakers intentionally overprice playoff teams in the opening week to compensate for the public’s propensity to over bet them.
This theory holds true just looking at straight-up records from the past season as well. That is, home teams with winning records from the prior season vs. road teams with losing records from the prior season are just 8-13 ATS in Week 1 NFL games since 1999.
Conclusion: Playoff teams from the prior year and in particular, home playoff teams, are overvalued in Week 1 NFL games.
Scoring defense and scoring offense
Do good defenses and for that matter good offenses from the prior season fare better against the number the following year in Week 1 games? Well, sort of. Generally speaking, teams with a solid offense or defense from the prior season tend to do well in the opening week so long as they are on the road. As a host, however, the best offenses and best defenses from the prior year tend to be overvalued in Week 1.
Consider that the top five scoring defenses (i.e. points allowed) from the prior season are a nice 8-4 ATS (66 percent) on the road in NFL openers the past five seasons. Meanwhile, the top five scoring defenses from the prior season are just 3-8-2 ATS (27 percent) as a host in Week 1 during the same time period.
There is no discernable advantage or disadvantage for teams with a top five scoring offense (i.e. points scored) in Week 1 games. However, when we look at scoring offenses from the bottom up (isolating the five worst offenses from the prior season), the results are rather interesting. In particular, teams ranked in the bottom five in scoring offense from the prior season are 9-4-1 ATS (69 percent) when on the road in Week 1.
The logic is simply that the public perception is a poor scoring offensive unit from the year prior will have little chance of winning on the road in Week 1. In turn, the oddsmakers compensate for this perception and these poor offensive teams from the year prior carry extra line value on the Week 1 trail.
Conclusion: Teams with top-ranked defenses from the previous season are good bets when playing on the road, but poor bets when playing at home. Also, teams ranked among the bottom five in scoring offense from the prior season are generally a good value in their Week 1 openers, provided they are playing on the road.
Scoring margin
An exceedingly straightforward way of measuring scoring offense and scoring defense together as a whole is to look at a team's “margin." Margin is simply scoring offense minus scoring defense, which is a fairly clear-cut measure of how a team does on both sides of the ball. Typically, the higher the margin, the better the team.
In this regard, it might seem counterintuitive that teams carrying the higher margin from the prior season in week one matchups are merely 31-42-7 ATS (42 percent). Furthermore, road teams with the higher margin are 14-20-6 ATS (41 percent), while home teams with the higher margin are 17-22-1 ATS (44 percent). Once again, these results line up with the theory that better teams from the prior year are overvalued come opening day of the following season.
Conclusion: “Better” teams, which often boast a higher margin than their opponent, are overvalued the following season in NFL openers.
In sum
Oddsmakers cater NFL betting lines to match public perception and also to bait the public into poor bets. The temptation to use the prior year’s success as a buy sign for how a team will perform against the spread in Week 1 of the following season is an enormous trap.
The fact is, isolating road teams, road dogs, non-playoff teams vs. playoff teams, teams with a losing record or low margin vs. playoff teams or ones with a high margin from the previous year is where the line value resides. Quite simply, taking the road less traveled is your surest path to NFL betting profits.
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